Monday, November 3, 2008

My Electoral Map - An Obama Landslide

Yeah, I'm feeling pretty bullish about Obama's map.

With these expectations, I'm possibly setting myself up for a huge disappointment. That being said, I just don't see much going McCain's direction come Tuesday.

A few things of note on my map:
  • Georgia, which has its former senator Bill Barr running as the Libertarian Party candidate, will be Obama's. Barr combined with record black turnout will seal the deal for Georgia's 15 electoral votes.
  • The tried and true red state of Montana, which is becoming a much lighter shade of red with a progressive governor and senator in Brian Schweitzer and John Tester, will go blue.
  • The former red states: North Carolina, North Dakota, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada are also going to Obama.
  • Missouri and its difficult polling environment will stay red. This will be only the second time in over 100 years that Missouri has not voted with the winning president.
  • Obama will win Pennsylvania, McCain's last of many Hail Marys (see Palin, suspending his campaign, etc.), by over 10 points.
  • The "ground games" and enthusiastic voters of Florida and Ohio will give Obama 3 to 5 point victories in each state.
  • McCain will win his home state of Arizona by less than 3 points.
I'll very likely look at this map on Wednesday morning and see that I was way too optimistic on this. But this is what my gut and heart, combined with a bit of my brain, is telling me.

Think I'm an idiot? Show me how and why. Make your own map here and post it in the comments section.


andy said...

Hmm, I'd say Montana stays red. Missouri goes blue and Indiana stays red.

either way, I've been saying for some time that McCain lost the election in Florida.

Even if MO, NC, MT, IN, OH, PA & CO go red tomorrow, if he carries Florida, Obama wins.

McCain's plan to cut medicare/medicaid just doesn't sit well with Florida.

Anonymous said...

Here's my map (scroll down about half the page).

It'd be nice if he picked up some of those, but I just don't think that's gonna happen. I'm guessing most of the undecideds will collapse to McCain, so if Obama isn't ahead already, or have a good deal of momentum, I don't see it happening.

I'm with Andy on Montana and Indiana. I also don't see ND (the polling there and in MT has been too sparse for me to believe it's actually in play and the ones that show us ahead are the least reliable ones (with the exception of the Saturday PPP in MT)) or NC (our man BO has been trending the wrong way there, lately).

I told my parents 2 months ago that I thought Obama would win, but Missouri wouldn't vote for him. I think I'm gonna retract that now and say he'll win it - he's had good movement in the polls lately and his polling aggregate is 48.4 to 47.0. I'm thinking 3rd party candidates in MO will get around 2% - so whoever gets 49.1% wins.

So, we're looking at 2.6% or so up for grabs. While, I think McCain will get most of those, I think it will be closer to a 1-2 split than 1-3. So, I'm thinking MO goes 49.3% Obama - 48.7% McCain.

At least I hope so - if Obama ends up winning with over 300 EV's and MO is not in his column, it'll be a fucking disgrace.

For the record, I'm think the Senate will be at 57 (D) + Sanders & LIEberman and 41 (R). I think Franken will win in MN, Wicker wins in MS, McConnel wins in KY and Chambliss wins in GA (but will go to a runoff).

So the Dems hold onto every of theirs in play and pickup AK, WA, CO, NM, MN, NC and NH.

I'm figuring out my house predictions right now. If you really want to geek out and talk about those, let me know.

Mark said...

I see what both of you guys are saying about MO and some of the states that I have going blue.

We shall see what happens tomorrow!

Pat, I particularly like your MO analysis. Of all people, I'll take your thoughts as credible! I'll look at those numbers particularly closely tomorrow.

Pat, you didn't mention Kay Hagan in NC. Do you see Liddy Dole beating the "Godless" one?

Anonymous said...

yeah - Hagan should win comfortably (7 pts or so), running about 3.5 points better than Obama. NC and MO will probably be the two closest prez races in the country.

Also, I should have said Oregon above, not Washington - damn geography.

Whatever happens, I think Obama is in pretty good shape for the presidency - even if he loses every battleground.

I just got even odds on the over for 300 Obama electoral votes. I've got $25 on it - I think that's a good bet (for me).

Mark said...

Just remember, all Obama needs to win is:

- The Kerry states
- Iowa
- New Mexico
- Colorado

Obama could lose Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Missouri, etc.

Thankfully, Obama has a plethora of paths to victory.

McCain, not so much.