Saturday, November 1, 2008

McCain in Deep Polling Trouble

The McCain/Palin camp has had bad news across the board for weeks. This latest polling data does not bode well for them either.

According to Mark's China Blog's poll at the top left corner of the page, Obama is winning the US Presidency by nearly thirty percentage points.

Out of the eight respondants, five are voting Obama (62.5%), two are voting McCain (25%), and one is a non-resident (12.5%).



A McCain spokesperson could not be reached for comment.

Barring a massive freeping, Obama's dominance at Mark's China Blog's poll appears as if it will carry on to election day.

9 comments:

尼克 said...

Ha! Like a blog poll is a signal of anything. I am voting the same way as you, but the news herein America is that the race is tightening up. And I have to disagree with you that voting 3rd party is throwing your vote away, as voting your conscience is always an admirable thing, wheter your party is one of the 2 monopolizing parties or the Greens, Constitution, Libertarian, or Socialist parties. Just think how much better the debates would be with these varying opinions and not just that of the Republicrats and Democans!

Mark said...

but the news herein America is that the race is tightening up.

The polls are tightening?!!?

http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php

Gee, if only the election were held on Christmas Day. McCain would maybe have a chance then.

shel israel said...

The polls are no longer tightening. Obama is back to a 10-11 point lead. In electoral votes, Obama could top 340, which will be a landslide in a country that has been evenly divided in our recent elections.

尼克 said...

Hey, I am not happy about it, but this is what I am speaking of:

http://www.zogby.com/main.htmUTICA, New York -- Republican John McCain made a small gain against Democrat Barack Obama and has pulled back within the margin of error, now trailing Obama by five points, 49.1% to 44.1%, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking telephone poll shows.

Almost two days worth of the polling -- or about half of the current sample in the three-day rolling poll of likely voters nationwide, was conducted after Obama's 30-minute commercial aired Wednesday evening. There is no evidence it helped him, as he has dropped 1.1 points in the last two days, while McCain has gained 0.8 points during the same period.

Mark said...

That Zogby poll is bunk.

For an explanation, see these sites:

- Fivethirtyeight.com's "Trick or Treat" - http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/trick-or-treat.html. It explains Zogby's garbage methodology.

- DailyKos' "About That Zogby Single-Day Leak To Drudge? Yeah, Still Obama +5" - http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/11/1/11958/0261. Zogby and Drudge are throwing a hail mary to get their based riled up.

尼克 said...

I will have to check out the 5 3 8 site, as I know what those 3 numbers mean in poll probability, but daily kos is anythning but fair, balanced, and unbiased, and I take anything they say with a giant grain of salt, just like any so-called news sites with agendas. But Zogby is showing McCain down 5% and they are usually very good when it comes to elections here in the USA, Drudge was just misrepresenting the data as 538 says on its front page. B ut I do not see any proof of really being +15% from any credible unbiased poll sites. Thanks for the links.

Mark said...

DailyKos is "biased," but that doesn't mean that it isn't worth reading. If you think it is biased in the same way that Fox News is, then you have never been to the site before. Facts actually have value there.

Nate Silver, the guy who runs 538, initially was posting his primary projections at DailyKos. After gaining some fame for being right on throughout the primary season, he decided to start his own site, 538.com. Read about Nate Silver at Wikipedia, he's an interesting dude.

It's funny, I find a lot of the places that are considered to be liberally biased - NPR, The New York Times, and even liberal blogs - to be more accurate and engaging than more "objective" places to find information.

Is reality liberally biased? Well, I don't know about that. I do think that the more anti-intellectual conservative whack jobs muddle up the more "objective" news sources though.

尼克 said...

See, I like to check places with slight biases but I check out each side equally to get a better picture of what is really happening. But Daily Kos, LGF, HuffReport, and others have such a heavy bias that I find them unreliable. But I do like my NPR and they are saying the race is tightening up too. I think there is a danger in Obama supporters thinking he is ahead and guaranteed to win, as many may decide it is decided and not vote. Then he could end up losing.

Anonymous said...

I'm still having a hard time making up my mind who to vote for. I'm not too happy about Obama because in Pennsylvania the economy isn't doing too good and higher taxes won't help. On the other hand, McCain seems a bit cratchety and clueless. I'm now going to vote for who I dislike the least. So, if anyone could name me the three biggest negatives about Obama and the the 3 biggest negatives about McCain that would be very helpful.