Last Year's Massive Earthquake

Apparently last years Sichuan earthquake was a once in a lifetime phenomenon. Actually, it was a once every four millenia phenomenon.

From AFP:

PARIS — People who were killed, injured or bereaved in the 2008 Sichuan earthquake had the cruel misfortune to be victims of an event that probably occurs just once in four millennia, seismologists said on Sunday.

In a paper published in the journal Nature Geoscience, Shen Zhengkang of the China Earthquake Administration and colleagues said the May 12, 2008 quake comprised a strong seismic wave, unusual geology and the failure of three subterranean "barriers" to resist the shock.

Using Global Positioning System (GPS) markers and data from satellite-borne interferometric radar, the scientists built up a picture of the Longmen Shan fault, on the northwest rim of the Sichuan basin, as it was gouged open by the 7.9-magnitude temblor.

Nearly 88,000 people were killed in what was the largest seismic event in China in more than 50 years.

Read On

Not that it is any consolation for those that were affected, but hopefully nothing like this will happen again for another four thousand years.

October 1st Approaches

This is a big week for China and the CCP.

From USA Today:

Image from Reuters (click this link to see a large collection of incredible photos of the anniversary's preparation)

BEIJING — With armed SWAT teams, 1 million security volunteers, a celebrity-packed hit movie and a barrage of propaganda, Beijing is gearing up for a burst of pride and patriotism for next week's 60th birthday of the People's Republic of China.

On Thursday, six decades after Chairman Mao Zedong climbed the Tiananmen gate to declare the founding of Communist China, President Hu Jintao will preside over a huge military parade to mark the nation's rising strength and prosperity — and its continuing one-party rule.

After the successful, ambitious Olympics opening ceremony in Beijing last year, the government is leaving nothing to chance.

To prevent collisions when 150 planes do a ceremonial flyover, people are banned from holding kites or balloons or from releasing pigeons in the city's center.

In addition to the heavy police presence already visible, backed by volunteers wearing red armbands, Chinese security chief Zhou Yongkang mobilized what he described as a "security moat" of checkpoints in neighboring provinces to keep out potential protesters, according to the state-run Xinhua News Agency. Zhou has called for a "people's war" to guarantee that nothing — and no one — disrupts the celebration.

Read On

When I heard about this celebration last winter, I didn't have a problem with it. To me, it seemed like the Chinese version of similar celebrations that happen in America and other countries throughout the world.

At some point between last January and now though, I soured on this kind of propaganda. I'm not sure when this exactly happened, but I'm not nearly as tolerant of this kind of stuff as I was. Leaving China, and before that preparing to leave China, surely has something to do with my disillusionment. I believe that my fundamental attitude toward the China and its policies changed while I was living in the Middle Kingdom too.

When I first went to China in early 2006, I didn't know much about China or the CCP. I had a very negative impression going in from the media in the West. Over time, though, I saw that, for the most part, China is a country on the move and Chinese people are generally happy and their lives are getting better. For these reasons, I became more tolerant of the leadership of China and their actions.

The more I got into China news and the more deeply I came to understand the country though, China's methods became less endearing. To me, it seems like the powers that be are more interested in securing their own political hides and the mythical "harmony" than actually treating people like humans or developing the country in a sustainable way.

I'll be interested to see pictures and videos of the events on October 1. But I'm not going to be seduced by the greatness of the day like I maybe would have a year or two ago.

Photos of the Week - Honeymoon in St. Pete

We finished up our honeymoon yesterday. We went to a resort in St. Petersburg, Florida. It was a really good and relaxing week. We were there from Sunday through Thursday. It was great to go during these times since there were hardly any people there. That's just what we were looking for for our honeymoon.

Here are some of the better photos we took:

Edited out photos

Me (with very stupid hair) and Qian on the beach with a rainbow in the background

Our honeymoon was perfect. We couldn't have really asked for a better few days.

Honeymoonin'

With Qian down on the West coast of Florida. It's incredible. Talk with y'all later.

Recovered

I commented on a post at the excellent The Peking Duck Blog last night. In the post, Richard, the author, was lamenting coming back to America at this time when the Chinese economy has, as The New York Times reports, "recovered." He too just left China after living there for an extended period of time.

I wrote a similar post myself last month. Indeed, leaving China for America right now feels weird. America is reeling and has been for some time now. While at the same time, there is still excitement and optimism living in China.

As I've been ranting about for months, I just don't see how the reckless lending, being promoted by the government, that's been producing China's growth, is a good thing though. To me, it's all a big mirage. China is keeping itself afloat by bubble-blowing and doing the same things that got the west into trouble. How can that be lauded?!

China's bank lending was addressed in the NY Times "recovery" article Richard referenced over at the Peking Duck.

From the end of the article:

Chinese banks came into the crisis with enormous excess reserves, the result of three years of tight regulatory limits on lending to prevent the economy from overheating. When those limits were removed, and authorities urged bank executives to lend, the total value of loans outstanding shot up more in the first seven months of this year than in the previous 24 months.

...

As much as a third of the extra bank lending in China appears to have gone into real estate and stock market speculation. But the bulk has gone into investments by companies and local governments, with tangible results.

...

Still, China’s stimulus efforts could be sowing the seeds of future distress. With so much money washing into the system so fast, regulators have voiced concerns about corruption in government investment projects.

Cheap cash has a way of inflating bubbles — just ask Wall Street — that could damage China’s economy and its banks when they pop.

“You have to imagine the rigor and due diligence” that mainland banks have been showing in rushing out so many loans, said Benjamin Hung, the chief executive of the Hong Kong unit of Standard Chartered Bank.

But such concerns are so 2008.

Uh... OK...

Here's an article that I think addresses such concerns in a more, I think, adult tone.

From Reuters:

Image from The Wall St. Journal earlier this year

Risks in China's banking sector are growing as banks have pumped out large amounts of credit this year to help the economy, the top banking regulator said in comments published on Friday.

Chinese banks extended 8.15 trillion yuan ($1.2 trillion) in local currency loans in the first eight months, far exceeding the government target of 5 trillion yuan for the full-year 2009 set early this year. The sharpest rise came in the first six months.

'This year, as bank loans have increased rapidly, all kinds of risks in the banking industry are picking up,' Liu Mingkang, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), said in a statement on the agency's website (www.cbrc.gov.cn).

It marked the most pointed recent warning from the banking regulator about increasing risks due to the explosive rise in lending

Read On

There's no doubt that this massive lending is what has China's economy clicking. Is China going to succumb to a similar crash as the US following this significantly increased lending? I don't know. Maybe it won't. But China really seems to be tempting fate by leveraging itself up in such staggering amounts of loans. The whole thing seems short-sighted to me.

The New York Times says that China has recovered. I can't say that I'm utterly convinced things are so clear-cut though.